Those who survive 2024 will be the winners. It had been a year since I last set foot in China. This country — its policies, its trends, its markets — changes very fast, and the field perspective confirms just how much a year’s absence can throw a strategic diagnosis out of alignment.

A tougher climate, but a readable one

The year 2024 marks the end of a cycle. The real-estate crisis, flagging consumer confidence, the rise of local brands across every segment — these are all signals that force a rethink of foreign positioning. The Chinese market is not in across-the-board contraction: it is segmenting and toughening.

The real-estate turning point weighs especially heavily: property represents a significant share of household wealth. Its decline reduces the propensity to spend in discretionary premium segments — precisely where many French companies had positioned themselves.

The segments that remain strong despite it all

Several areas remain dynamic: wellness and nutrition, children’s products, functional cosmetics, local gastronomic experiences, personalized health. Absolute luxury (watches, high-end jewelry) is also holding up, carried by wealth-based clienteles.

Accessible luxury and the intermediate premium are suffering more. Consumers are either trading up or trading down; the “comfortable middle” is evaporating. Brands that have not made a clear choice about their positioning are paying the price.

The rise of made-in-China

In nearly every segment, local brands are gaining ground: cosmetics (Florasis, Perfect Diary), home appliances, mobile phones, electric vehicles, premium apparel. Quality has moved closer to international standards, and “guochao” (the national-pride movement) makes local brands attractive to young urban consumers.

For French companies, this means people no longer automatically buy “French” simply because it is French. The differentiation must be legible, proven, and told locally.

The new opportunities

Three opportunities stand out despite the context:

  • “Signature” foreign brands that offer an irreplaceable experience — often lower volume, but higher margin and loyalty.
  • B2B players in the niches where China still lacks technological autonomy (specialized industrial machinery, certain medical equipment, functional ingredients).
  • Hybrid France-China structures where French know-how is industrialized locally with a Chinese partner.

The challenge: relearning

The trap, in 2024, is to extend the assumptions of 2019 or even 2022. Buying habits have changed, the dominant digital channels have evolved (Douyin has strengthened its position, Rednote has become essential in certain segments), and expectations of foreign brands have hardened.

The companies that will succeed are those willing to come back to the field, to re-examine their distributors, to listen to consumers, and to adjust without taboos. Those waiting for the market to return “as it was before” will remain on the sidelines.

In summary

2024 is not an easy year, but it is a pivotal one. It favors those who have the humility to listen and the method to act. The survivors of 2024 will be the solid players of 2026. And local anchoring — physical, bicultural, continuous — matters more than ever in distinguishing signal from noise.